Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q3
San Francisco 49ers
4th & 1 at the 1
San Francisco 49ers 13 – Los Angeles Rams 27
What Actually Happened
(5:44) 28-C.Hyde up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.95 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 1, worth +0.53 EP
KICK
+2.19 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT
+0.11 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
