Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 26 – Los Angeles Rams 41

(8:19) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to LA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.08 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model