Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

(13:06) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to NYJ 37, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.06 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model