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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 22

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model