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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 72

New York Jets 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model