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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(:28) 16-M.Haack punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.09 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -2.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model