Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 10

(14:07) 16-M.Haack punts 43 yards to NYJ 37, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley to MIA 49 for 14 yards (48-M.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model