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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 53

New York Jets 20 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -3.37 EP
KICK -2.25 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.23 EP
PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP