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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 26

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model