Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

(3:10) 16-M.Haack punts 46 yards to NYJ 28, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley ran ob at NYJ 43 for 15 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.92 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model