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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 43

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at NYG 49 for -6 yards (59-D.Kennard).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model