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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(:24) 26-O.Darkwa up the middle to PHI 2 for -1 yards (59-J.Walker; 75-V.Curry).

The Three Options

GO +4.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.73 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model