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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to NYG 44 for 1 yard.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model