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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 13

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.Shepard (21-P.Robinson) [93-T.Jernigan].

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.06 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model