4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to NYG 45, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.97 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 38, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model