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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 23

New York Giants 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 2-A.Rosas 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.51 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model