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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(:56) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.35 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model