Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Giants 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

(:19) 9-B.Wing punts 28 yards to PHI 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP

69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.36 EP
31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -1.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model