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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 41

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback. PENALTY on PHI-21-P.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model