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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 38

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 9-B.Wing punts 28 yards to PHI 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model