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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 85

Washington Commanders 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to LV 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 30-J.Richard to LV 29 for -2 yards (31-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.49 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model