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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to WAS 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 15 for 5 yards (39-K.McGill).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model