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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 45

Washington Commanders 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(:19) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to LV 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP