4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to WAS 9, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LV-47-J.Cowser at WAS 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.77 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP