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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 10

Washington Commanders 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.23 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP