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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(5:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr scrambles left guard to LV 38 for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model