Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 7

(7:47) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to WAS 25, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model