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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 69

Washington Commanders 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to LV 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 30-J.Richard to LV 17 for 6 yards (31-F.Moreau, 47-Q.Dunbar).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model