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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to WAS 17, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model