Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 75

Chicago Bears 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to PIT 27, Center-49-A.DePaola. 17-E.Rogers MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-27-S.McManis at PIT 29. 27-S.McManis to PIT 29 for no gain (17-E.Rogers).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.46 EP
68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model