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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 72

Chicago Bears 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to PIT 38, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model