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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 53

Chicago Bears 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.94 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -1.64 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model