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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 29

Chicago Bears 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.49 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model