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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 6

Tennessee Titans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.22 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 6, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP