Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

(12:32) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to TEN 32, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-J.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.06 EP
66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model