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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.71 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP