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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 6 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to SEA 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.18 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model