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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to TEN 31, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP