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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to TEN 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 46 for 15 yards (30-B.McDougald).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model