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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:19) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to SEA 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 12 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.45 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model