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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:17) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model