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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:55) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to TEN 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 23 for 6 yards (26-S.Griffin; 38-T.Madden). PENALTY on SEA-57-M.Wilhoite, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.03 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP