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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 27

Seattle Seahawks 39 – Indianapolis Colts 18

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 21-J.McKissic for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.57 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model