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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 2 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 2-R.Sanchez punts 32 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-44-A.Morrison.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP