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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 45

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to JAX 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model