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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 71

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to JAX 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model