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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.44 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model