Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 60

New York Jets 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(4:13) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to JAX 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model