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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 2-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.18 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model