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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to NYJ 13, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model